Tag Archives: cardiovascular disease

Which Kind of Baby Aspirin Should I Take To Prevent Heart Attack? Chewable Versus Enteric Coated Versus Regular

The skeptical cardiologist recently asked his Eternal Fiancée to grab a bottle of baby aspirin  while she was at the local Walgreen’s. Aspirin or acetyl salicylic acid (ASA) comes in either a 325 mg dose or in a low dose which can be between 75 to 100 mg and is often called “baby” aspirin.

However, since a link between aspirin use and a potentially lethal disease called Reye’s syndrome was identified in the 1980s, no authorities recommend aspirin in children or babies, and the low dose ASA (LDASA) is primarily marketed and used for prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Although Bayer and Dr. Oz would have us believe that all individuals over the age of 55 should be taking LDASA, as I pointed out here in 2014, the FDA no longer recommends it for prevention of cardiovascular disease.

The US Preventive Services Task Force, on the other hand, recognizes certain individuals without heart disease who benefit from LDASA:

The USPSTF recommends initiating low-dose aspirin use for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and colorectal cancer (CRC) in adults aged 50 to 59 years who have a 10% or greater 10-year CVD risk, are not at increased risk for bleeding, have a life expectancy of at least 10 years, and are willing to take low-dose aspirin daily for at least 10 years.
I’m 63  years old, so the USPTF recommendation for me to take LDASA is a little less enthusiastic:
The decision to initiate low-dose aspirin use for the primary prevention of CVD and CRC in adults aged 60 to 69 years who have a 10% or greater 10-year CVD risk should be an individual one. Persons who are not at increased risk for bleeding, have a life expectancy of at least 10 years, and are willing to take low-dose aspirin daily for at least 10 years are more likely to benefit. Persons who place a higher value on the potential benefits than the potential harms may choose to initiate low-dose aspirin.
Following my own advice (see here), I have started taking 81mg of aspirin regularly (well, when I remember) in order to prevent stroke and heart attack. I do have subclinical atherosclerosis with a plaque in my LAD, and I think the aspirin will make my platelets less sticky and less likely to form clots if my plaque ruptures, thereby reducing my chances of an acute heart attack.
I am willing to accept the increased risk of bleeding from the gastrointestinal tract and hemorrhagic stroke associated with LDASA use.

Previous to this I had been taking ASA from little sample bottles that Bayer sends to my office. These bottles are quite annoying as they are stuffed with cotton and contain very few pills making extrication of the tiny pills an exercise in futility (I am using this as an excuse for my lack of regularity in taking them).

There’s no reason to pay the premium for Bayer ASA despite the company’s advertising attempts to link inextricably their name with ASA.  Aspirin is aspirin, whether Bayer made it or Walgreens. In Bayer’s defense, their website has reasonable information on heart attacks and they appear to be giving aspirin away to people named Smith.

But what type of aspirin should you get? Enteric-coated, safety-coated, delayed release, chewable?

Chewable Aspirin

I asked the Eternal Fiancée to buy the cheapest baby aspirin possible.

She ended up buying a chewable formulation with orange flavoring, presumably aimed at children:

When I put one of these in my mouth I tasted the sickly sweet taste of an artificial sweetener. The ingredients are listed as: Dextrates, Ethyl Cellulose, FD&C Yellow 6 Aluminum Lake, Orange Flavor, Sodium Saccharin, Starch. Saccharine! Yikes!

The only reason to chew ASA is if you are having an acute heart attack.

In this situation, chew 4 of the LDASA or one regular 325 mg aspirin.  Chewing the aspirin makes the levels rise faster in your blood stream and can help dissolve the clot causing your heart attack more rapidly.

How do you know if you are having a heart attack? This is actually a very difficult question to answer with certainty. See here for a reasonable discussion.

Low Dose Aspirin: Enteric-Coated versus Non-coated

It is very difficult (perhaps impossible) to find low dose, non-chewable ASA that has not been “safety-coated” or “enteric-coated.” These formulations have become popular by promoting the idea that they are less likely to cause stomach pain or bleeding.

The concept is that the coating leads to delaying the aborption of the ASA until it reaches the small intestines where, presumably, it will do less damage. However, there is no good evidence to support lower bleeding risk with enteric-coasted (EC) ASA.

There is, on the other hand, very good evidence that therapeutic levels of aspirin in the bloodstream, and therefore the speed and efficacy of ASA in preventing heart attacks, is reduced by these “safety” formulations.

The most recent study showing this was published in 2017.

Volunteers were given either 325mg regular ASA or 325mg EC ASA and researchers looked at how each formulation effected platelet activity.  The onset of antiplatelet activity was determined by the rate and extent of inhibition of serum thromboxane B2(TXB2) generation.

The EC ASA took longer and was less effective at blocking platelet activity than plain ASA. Presumably, this translates into lower efficacy in preventing heart attacks and strokes.

Therefore,  if you feel like you are having a heart attack, chew ASA which is not enteric or safety-coated. Yes, you can chew a regular 325 mg ASA pill. Or you can chew 4 of the LDASA, preferably uncoated but still helpful if coated.

If it turns out you weren’t having a heart attack there is no down side to having chewed 325 mg ASA.

I just spent a fair amount of time trying to find non EC, non-chewable LDASA online and failed.

For the time being I will be swallowing daily the orange chewable LDASA and I will carry a bottle around in my satchel for emergency use.

Salicylically Yours,

-ACP

N.B. Aspirin is generally recommended in secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease, ie. for those who have had heart attacks, stents or bypass surgery . For a good review of the evidence for this see here.

Donald Trump Has Moderate Coronary Plaque: This Is Normal For His Age And We Already Knew It

In October, 2016 the skeptical cardiologist predicted that Donald Trump’s coronary calcium score, if remeasured, would be >100 .  At that time I pointed out that this score is consistent with moderate coronary plaque build up and implies a moderate risk of heart attack and stroke.

Trumps’ score gave him a seven-fold increase risk of a cardiovascular event in comparison to Hilary Clinton (who had a zero coronary calcium score) .

Yesterday it was revealed by the White House doctor , Ronny Jackson, that Trump’s repeat score  was 133.

I was able to predict this score because we knew that Trump’s coronary calcium was 98 in 2013 and that on average calcium scores increase by about 10% per year.

I pointed out that his previous  score was average for white men his age and his repeat score is also similar to the average white male of 71 years.

Entering Trump’s numbers into the MESA coronary calculator shows us he is at the 46th percentile, meaning that 46% of white men his age have less calcium.We can also calculate Trump’s 10 year risk of heart attack and stroke using the app from the ACC (the ASCVD calculator) and entering in the following information obtained from the White House press briefing:

Total Cholesterol          223

LDL Cholesterol            143

HDL Cholesterol              67

Systolic Blood Pressure 122

Never Smoked Cigarettes

Taking aspirin 81 mg and rosuvastatin (Crestor) 10 mg.

His 10 year risk of heart attack or stroke is 16.7%.

Given that his calcium score is average it doesn’t change his predicted risk and the conclusion is that his risk is identical to the average 71 year old white man-moderate.

We also know that Trump had an exercise stress echocardiogram which was totally normal and therefore can be reasonably certain that the moderate plaque build up in his arteries is not restricting the blood flow to his heart.

Here is what Dr. Jackson said about the stress echo:

He had an exercise stress echocardiogram done, which demonstrated above-average exercise capacity based on age and sex, and a normal heart rate, blood pressure, and cardiac output response to exercise.  He had no evidence of ischemia, and his wall motion was normal in all images. the stress echo:

The New York Times article on this issue, entitled “Trump’s Physical Revealed Serious Heart Concerns, Outside Experts Say”  however, presents a dramatically worrisome and misleading narrative.

It quotes several cardiologists who were very concerned about Trump’s high LDL level, weight and diet.

It’s interesting that some of the experts quoted in the NY Times piece feel that Trump’s Crestor dose should be increased in light of the recent NY  Times piece questioning whether the elderly should take statins at all.

If we have serious concerns about Trump’s heart then we should have the same concerns about every 71 year old white man because he is totally average with regard to cardiac risk. In addition he is on a statin and on aspirin, the appropriate drugs to reduce risk.

In contrast to the average 71 year old male he has had a battery of cardiac tests which show exactly where he stands cardiac wise.

Most of these cardiac tests we would not recommend to an asymptomatic individual of any age. Jackson revealed that Trump had an EKG and an echocardiogram.

His ECG, or commonly EKG, was normal sinus rhythm with a rate of 71, had a normal axis, and no other significant findings.

He had a transthoracic echocardiogram done, which demonstrated normal left ventricular systolic function, an ejected fraction of 60 to 65 percent, normal left ventricular chamber size and wall thickness, no wall motion abnormalities, his right ventricle was normal, his atria were grossly normal, and all valves were normal.

So our President has a normal heart for a 71 year old white male. This automatically puts him at moderate risk for heart attack and stroke over the next 10 years but he is being closely monitored and appropriately treated and should do well.

Nonalarmingly Yours,

-ACP

N.B. I see that Trump’s LDL was reported previously as 93. The current LDL of 143 suggests to me that he has not been taking his Crestor.

N.B. Below is an excerpt from my prior post which explains coronary calcium

Regular readers of the skeptical cardiologist should be familiar with the coronary calcium scan or score (CAC) by now.  I’ve written about it a lot (here, here, and here) and use it frequently in my patients, advocating its use to help better assess certain  patient’s risk of sudden death and heart attacks.

coronary calcium
Image from a patient with a large amount of calcium in the widowmaker or LAD coronary artery (LAD CA).

The CAC scan utilizes computed tomography (CT)  X-rays, without the need for intravenous contrast, to generate a three-dimensional picture of the heart. Because calcium is very apparent on CT scans, and because we can visualize the arteries on the surface of the heart that supply blood to the heart (the coronary arteries), the CAC scan can detect and quantify calcium in the coronary arteries with great accuracy and reproducibility.

Calcium only develops in the coronary arteries when there is atherosclerotic plaque. The more plaque in the arteries, the more calcium. Thus, the more calcium, the more plaque and the greater the risk of heart attack and death from heart attack.

Are You A Victim of Excessive Daytime Sleepiness?

The Skeptical Cardiologist has been analyzing the data on sleep apnea (OSA) and cardiovascular disease, utilizing his spectacular skeptical skills.

Recent guidelines from the American Academy of Sleep Medicine suggest that 30 million adults in the US have OSA and that OSA is causing all manner of problems.

I note patient awareness of the possibility of OSA is rising exponentially and many of my patient’s are being subjected to sleep studies because their wives are bothered by their excessive snoring.

The AASM guidelines state that

Increased risk of moderate to severe OSA is indicated by the presence of excessive daytime sleepiness and at least two of the following three criteria: habitual loud snoring; witnessed apnea or gasping or choking; or diagnosed hypertension

Although I have no reason to suspect that I have sleep disordered breathing (SDB-I feel like this term is becoming popular as it avoids the stigma of apnea), I decided to determine my  Epworth Sleepiness Scale which is often utilized   to measure excessive daytime sleepiness.

Developed by Dr. Murray Johns, this scale has its own website where you will learn that:

Johns (2002) introduced the term somnificity to describe the effects of different postures and activities on sleep propensity.

The somnificity of any particular posture, activity and situation is a measure of its ability to facilitate or impede sleep onset in the majority of people. It is not a characteristic of individual people or their sleep disorders.

and (no doubt after years of intense sleepiness research) Dr. Johns has discovered that:

Simply to lie down rather than stand up increases one’s likelihood of falling asleep – the change of posture increases one’s sleep propensity at the time.

After stumbling up on this revelation I have decided to test my hypothesis that playing electric guitar while standing has extremely  low somnificity. (I also hope to use the word somnificity in a normal daily conversation without biting my tongue.)

This self-administered questionnaire asks you to rate how likely you are (on a scale of 0=never to 3=high chance of dozing)  to doze off or fall asleep in certain situations. What follows are the situations with my observations and my self-rated score.

Sitting and reading    (Principles of Nuclear Medicine=3, Brave New World=0)                          1

Watching TV   1

Sitting, inactive in a public place (theatre or a meeting)     1

As a passenger in a car for an hour without a break     2

Lying down to rest in the afternoon when circumstances permit 3

sitting and talking to someone               1

sitting quietly after a lunch without alcohol      1

In a car while stopped for a few minutes in the traffic   2

They don’t ask about falling asleep while driving which seems much more important than the other situations. I’ve done that a lot.

The biggest soporific situation for me is sitting in a barber’s chair. No matter what small talk the hairdresser throws at me, I am asleep within 5 minutes. My bobbing head requires the rare skill of trimming a moving target.

My total score was 12 which puts me solidly in the land of sleep disordered breathing. In the original study by Johns  the patient’s with sleep apnea  (OSA-line 3 in below chart) had an  average score of 11.7.

The AASM guidelines indicate that I could have gotten into some OSA studies with my score, especially if I add in that I have been caught snoring, gasping and choking (sometimes all three simultaneously!) and I have hypertension.

The Eternal fiancée got a respectable score of 7. Apparently she never falls asleep at traffic lights, watching TV/movie or sitting after lunch and believes these are masculine traits. However, I think she should get double points for taking long, intentional naps throughout the day.

Somnificitically Yours,

-ACP

 

 

Why Did I Go Into Atrial Fibrillation?

The skeptical cardiologist is asked this  question or  variations of it (such as  what caused me to go out of rhythm?) on a daily basis.

Most patients would like to have a reason for why their atria suddenly decided to fibrillate.  It’s understandable. If they could identify the reason perhaps they could stop it from happening again.

There are two variations on this question:

For the patient who has just been diagnosed with afib the question is really “what is the underlying reason for me developing this condition?”

For the patient who has had afib for a while and it comes and goes seemingly randomly the question is “what caused the afib at this time? i.e. what triggers my episodes?”

For most patients, there is no straighforward and simple answer to either one of these questions

The Underlying Cause of Atrial Fibrillation

My stock response to this first question goes like this:

“Atrial fibrillation is associated with getting older and having high blood pressure. 10 % of individual >/= 80 years have atrial fibrillation. 90% of patients with afib have hypertension.

Aging and hypertension may increase scarring or damage in the left atrium or pulmonary veins that drain into the left atrium setting up abnormal electrical signals.

There are some specific things that cause afib and we will be doing a complete history and physical and some testing to check for the most common. We’ll check you for thyroid or electrolyte abnormalities and we will do an echocardiogram to look for any structural problems with your heart.

If we do find a treatable cause such as hyperthyroidism or a cardiac valve problem we will fix that and the afib may go away, however chances are we won’t find a specific reason why you developed atrial fibrillation.

Finally, and possibly most importantly, let’s take a close look at your lifestyle. Are you overweight? If so, losing 10% of your body weight will substantially lower your risk of recurrent atrial fibrillation. Let’s get you exercising regularly and eating a healthy diet, Make sure your sleep is optimized and your stress minimized.”

If you’d like a more sophisticated look into what causes afib take a look at this graphic from a recent paper.

Current theory has it that factors that we know are associated with atrial fibrillation  including obesity, hypertension and sleep apnea cause atrial structural abnormalities or remodeling which then create various atrial electrical abnormalities.

 

Exhaustive List of Causes

If you’d like an exhaustive list of factors associated with atrial fibrillation, you can memorize the acronym P.I.R.A.T.E.S. which is sometimes used by medical students to remember the causes of atrial fibrillation which include:

  • Pulmonary disease (COPD, PE)/Phaeochromocytoma
  • Ischemia (ACS)
  • Rheumatic heart disease (mitral stenosis)
  • Anemia (high output failure/tachycardia)/Atrial myxoma/Acid-base disturbance
  • Thyrotoxicosis (tachycardia)
  • Ethanol/Endocarditis/Electrolyte disturbance (hypokalaemia, hypomagnesaemia)/Elevated BP
  • Sepsis/Sick Sinus Syndrome/Sympathomimetics (Drugs)

And here’s a cute  mnemonic from the Family Practice Notebook using ATRIAL FIB itself (although you have to use the ph of pheochromocytoma to make the f of fib)

  1. Alcohol Abuse
  2. Thyroid Disease
  3. Rheumatic Heart Disease
  4. Ischemic Heart Disease
  5. Atrial Myxoma
  6. Lung (Pulmonary Embolism, Emphysema)
  7. Pheochromocytoma
  8. Idiopathic
  9. Blood Pressure (Hypertension)

Both of these mnemonics are a little outdated. For example, rheumatic mitral stenosis is quite rare as a cause of afib in the US but  degenerative and functional mitral regurgitation is a common cause.

Ischemic heart disease (aka coronary heart disease) isn’t felt to cause atrial fibrillation unless it results in a myocardial infarction and subsequent heart failure. Way too many cardiac catheterizations are performed on patients who present with atrial fibrillation by doctors who don’t know this.

Congenital heart defects (not mentioned in either mnemonic) especially atrial septal defects often are associated with afib

There may be case reports of pheochromocytoma (a catecholamine-secreting neuroendocrine tumor) causing afib but they are few and far between.

Finally, genetics clearly play a role in the younger patient with afib without any known risk factors. One of my patients and his twin brother both developed symptomatic afib in their 40s.

In The Chronic Afibber What Triggers An Episode?

Alas, for most afibbers we won’t identify specific reasons why you go in and out of afib although there are some triggers you should definitely avoid such as excessive alcohol.

Some of the “causes” listed in the mnemonic are acute triggers of afib episodes.

For example low potassium or magnesium (typically induced by diuretics, diarrhea or vomiting) can bring on episodes .(See my discussion on potassium and PVCS here-much of it is relevant to afib.)

And I  have definitely seen patients go  into atrial fibrillation who have acute pulmonary problems such as pneumonia, pulmonary embolism or exacerbation of COPD.  In these cases, it is felt that the lung process raises pressure in the pulmonary arteries thereby  putting strain on the right heart leading to higher right atrial pressures.

Sleep apnea is associated with afib and I have had a few cases where after identifying that a patient’s  afib always began during sleep we were able to substantially lower episodes by treatment of sleep apnea.

Pericarditis with inflammation adjacent to the left atrium not uncommonly causes  afib. This is the likely mechanism for the afib that occurs frequently after cardiac surgery. Since pericarditis may never recur (especially in the cardiac surgery patient) we think the risk of afib recurring is low in these patients.

Anything that raises stress and stimulates the sympathomimetic nervous system can be a trigger. For example, a young and otherwise healthy patient of mine went into afib after encountering a car in flames along the side of the road. We found that beta-blockers (which block the sympathetic nervous system) helped prevent her episodes.

Some patients have odd but reproducible triggers. One of my patients routinely went into afib when he ate ice cream. I had a simple , very effective treatment plan for him.

Caffeine and Chocolate

Many afibbers have been told to avoid caffeine but a recent study of 34,000 women found that there was no increased risk of afib with increasing caffeine content and no sign that any of the individual contributors to caffeine in the diet (coffee, tea, cola, and chocolate) were more likely to cause afib.

Higher chocolate consumption, in fact, has recently been linked to a lower rate of afib. An observational  study of 55 thousand Danish men and women found that those who consumed 2 to 6 servings per week of 1 oz (30 grams) of chocolate had a 20% lower rate of clinically apparent afib.

Alcohol and Atrial Fibrillation

Binge drinking has long been known to cause acute atrial fibrillation.

However, it appears that even light to moderate chronic alcohol consumption increases the risk of going into atrial fibrillation.

This graphic from an excellent recent review of the topic gives the potential mechanisms:

The review concludes that although light to moderate alcohol consumption lowers your risk of dying, any alcohol consumption increases your risk of afib.

This graph shows the relationship between dying from heart disease (red line) and risk of going into afib (blue line) and amount of alcohol consumed.

Looking at the 15 drinks per week point on the x-axis (about 2 drinks per day) we see that your CV mortality is reduced by 20% whereas your risk of afib has increased by 20%.

A better point on the x-axis is 7 (1 drink per day) which has a 25% lower CV mortality but only a 10% higher risk of afib.

Whatever caused you to go into afib the good news is that with lifestyle changes and the care of a good cardiologist chances are excellent that you can live a normal, happy, healthy , long and active life.

Etiologically Yours,

ACP

 

Pistachios: Are Their Shells A Portal to Contamination, The Key To Weight Loss, or A Manicure Destruction Device?

The results of the “Fourth Nut” poll are in and the winner is a nut first cultivated in Bronze Age Central Asia,

Almost 60% of readers who took the time to vote selected the pistachio nut.

Coming in a distant second was the macadamia nut. One reader prized it because it only contained saturated fat and monounsaturated fats. Another bemoaned their candy-like quality which makes over-consumption an issue.

A couple of readers were strong proponents of Brazil nuts. This prompted me to enter a selenium rabbit hole from which I have yet to emerge. If I can escape with my selenoproteins intact I’ll let you know.

Pistachios are a fine choice from a health standpoint and seem to be embraced by all nutritional cults, with the exception of  the very nutty Caldwell “NO OIL” Esselstyn’s acolytes.

The Pistachio Principle PR Institute

I’m in the process of sorting through the nutritional studies on pistachios, and the hardest part is determining which data are sponsored by the pistachio industry.

For example, poorly researched online articles about pistachios will typically state that “research suggests” that “pistachios could help to reduce hypertension and promote development of beneficial gut microbes. They’re even gaining credibility as a tool for weight loss”

The first reference is an open access review article which clearly just wants to extoll any and all positive pistachio data and was paid for by the American Pistachio Growers. The second article comes directly from “The Pistachio Health Institute,” a PR voice for the pistachio industry.

To Shell or Not to Shell

My major dilemma was deciding if the pistachios should be shelled or left in-shell. (This has led me down the pistachio production rabbit hole).

I was concerned that the outsides of the pistachio shells could be contaminated in some way and the idea of mixing them in with unshelled nuts seemed a little strange.

If you Google images of mixed nuts pistachio you only see mixtures with unshelled pistachios.

Why, then, are most pistachios sold and consumed in-shell?

According to How Stuff Works Louise Ferguson, author of the Pistachio Production Manual believes:

Between 70 and 90 percent of pistachios develop a natural split in their shells during the growing process, After those pistachios are shaken off the trees by harvesting machines, they can be salted and roasted while still inside the shells as that natural crack allows heat and salt access to the nut, eliminating a step in the industrial process and saving processors some money.

The pistachio PR machine would also have us believe that eating pistachios in-shell can lead to weight loss:

Why choose any other nut?

This pistachios principle is based on 2 studies in the journal Appetite (seems to be a legitimate journal) by JE Painter of the department of “Family and Consumer Sciences” Eastern Illinois University in Charleston, Illinois.

I’m awaiting a full copy of the paper, but the abstract notes that students offered in-shell pistachios consumed only 125 calories, whereas those offered shelled pistachios consumed 211 calories yet “fullness and satisfaction” were similar.

My skeptical sensors were exploding when I read about this study. I doubt that it will ever be reproduced.

If we look at cost, an unofficial analysis revealed:

The pre-shelled pistachios were priced at $5.99 for 6.3 oz of nuts.

The 8 oz bag of pistachios were priced at $4.49.  After shelling he was left with 4.3 oz of nuts.

Un-shelled pistachios = $1.04 per oz.

Shelled pistachios = $0.95 per oz.

If you go the lazy route, you save $.09 per oz!

Most likely, the fourth nut will be a shelled pistachio unless readers convince me otherwise or the blather from the pistachio PR machine  annoys me too much.

The eternal fiance’e has just weighed in and tells me that women who care about their well-groomed  nails will not consume  in-shell pistachio nuts for fear of damaging their manicures.

That, my friends, is the  nail in the coffin for shelled pistachios as the fourth nut.

Pistachoprincipaly Yours,

-ACP

Does Eating Saturated Fat Lower Your Risk of Stroke and Dying?: Humility and Conscience in Nutritional Guidelines

A study presented at the European Society of Cardiology  meetings in Barcelona and simultaneously published in The Lancet earlier this month caught the attention of many of my readers. Media headlines trumpeted  “Huge New Study Casts Doubt On Conventional Wisdom About Fat And Carbs” and “Pure Shakes Up Nutritional Field: Finds High Fat Intake Beneficial.”

Since I’ve been casting as much doubt as possible on the  conventional nutritional wisdom  to cut saturated fat, they reasoned, I should be overjoyed to see such results.

What Did the PURE Study Find?

The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study, involved more than 200 investigators who collected data on more than 135000 individuals from 18 countries across five continents for over 7 years.

There were three high-income (Canada, Sweden, and United Arab Emirates), 11 middle-income (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Iran, Malaysia, occupied Palestinian territory, Poland, South Africa, and Turkey) and four low-income countries (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Zimbabwe)

This was the largest prospective observational study to assess the association of nutrients (estimated by food frequency questionnaires) with cardiovascular disease and mortality in low-income and middle-income populations,

The PURE team reported that:

Higher carbohydrate intake was associated with an increased risk of total mortality but not with CV disease or CV disease mortality.

This finding meshes well with one of my oft-repeated themes here, that added sugar is the major toxin in our diet (see here and here.)

Higher fat intake was associated with lower risk of total mortality.

Each type of fat (saturated, unsaturated, mono unsaturated ) was associated with about the same lower risk of total mortality. 

 

These findings are consistent with my observations that it is becoming increasingly clear that cutting back on  fat and saturated fat as the AHA and the Dietary Guidelines for Americans have been telling you to do for 30 years is not universally helpful (see here and  here ).

When you process the fat out of dairy and eliminate meat from your diet although your LDL (“bad”) cholesterol drops a little your overall cholesterol (atherogenic lipid) profile doesn’t improve (see here).

Another paper from the PURE study shows this nicely and concluded:

Our data are at odds with current recommendations to reduce total fat and saturated fats. Reducing saturated fatty acid intake and replacing it with carbohydrate has an adverse effect on blood lipids. Substituting saturated fatty acids with unsaturated fats might improve some risk markers, but might worsen others. Simulations suggest that ApoB-to-ApoA1 ratio probably provides the best overall indication of the effect of saturated fatty acids on cardiovascular disease risk among the markers tested. Focusing on a single lipid marker such as LDL cholesterol alone does not capture the net clinical effects of nutrients on cardiovascular risk.

Further findings from PURE:

-Higher saturated fat intake was associated with a lower risk of stroke

-There was no association between total fat or saturated fat or unsaturated fat with risk of heart attack or dying from heart disease.

Given that most people still believe that saturated fat causes heart disease and are instructed by most national dietary guidelines to cut out animal and dairy fat this does indeed suggest that

Global dietary guidelines should be reconsidered …”

Amen!

Because the focus of dietary guidelines on reducing total and saturated fatty acid intake “is largely based on selective emphasis on some observation and clinical data despite the existence of several randomizesed trials and observational studies that do not support these conclusions.”

Pesky Confounding Factors

We cannot infer causality from PURE because like all obervational studies, the investigators do not have control over all the factors influencing outcomes. These confounding factors are legion in a study that is casting such a broad net across different countries with markedly different lifestyles and socioeconomic status.

The investigators did the best job they could taking into account household wealth and income, education, urban versus rural location and the effects of study centre on the outcomes.

In an accompanying editorial, Christopher E Ramsden and Anthony F Domenichiello, prominent NIH researchers,  ask:

“Is PURE less confounded by conscientiousness than observational studies done in Europe and North American countries?

 

“Conscientiousness is among the best predictors of longevity. For example, in a Japanese population, highly and moderately conscientious individuals had 54% and 50% lower mortality, respectively, compared with the least conscientious tertile.”

“Conscientious individuals exhibit numerous health-related behaviours ranging from adherence to physicians’ recommendations and medication regimens, to better sleep habits, to less alcohol and substance misuse. Importantly, conscientious individuals tend to eat more recommended foods and fewer restricted foods.Since individuals in European and North American populations have, for many decades, received in influential diet recommendations, protective associations attributed to nutrients in studies of these populations are likely confounded by numerous other healthy behaviours. Because many of the populations included in PURE are less exposed to in influential diet recommendations, the present findings are perhaps less likely to be confounded by conscientiousness.”

It is this pesky conscientiousness factor (and other unmeasured confounding variables) which limit the confidence in any conclusions we can make from observational studies.

I agree wholeheartedly with the editorial’s conclusions:

Initial PURE findings challenge conventional diet–disease tenets that are largely based on observational associations in European and North American populations, adding to the uncertainty about what constitutes a healthy diet. This uncertainty is likely to prevail until well designed randomised controlled trials are done. Until then, the best medicine for the nutrition field is a healthy dose of humility.

 

Ah, if only the field of nutrition had been injected with a healthy dose of humility and a nagging conscience thirty years ago when its experts declared confidently that high dietary fat and cholesterol consumption was the cause of heart disease.!

Current nutritional experts and the guidelines they write will  benefit from a keen awareness of the unintended consequences of recommendations which they make based on weak and insufficient evidence  because such recommendations influence the food choices  (and thereby the quality of life and the mechanisms of death) of hundreds of millions of people.

PUREly Yours,

ACP

The Fourth Nut

The skeptical cardiologist has given out the entire first batch of Dr. P’s Heart Nuts to his patients.

This precisely constructed mixture of hazelnuts, almonds and walnuts designed to maximize heart healthiness has been warmly received and hopefully enthusiastically consumed.

To some extent I feel like I may be preaching to the choir as many of the Heart Nuts recipients told me they were already avid nut fans and consumers.

However, I plan to press on with my mission to increase the amount of nut snacking in the world.

To this end, I have reorganized my blog and created a page devoted to Nuts and Drupes. You can find it here and I’ll reproduce it below.

Furthermore, I have decided to add a fourth nut to the mixture. At this time, I am intensely researching pistachio nuts and macadamia nuts to be the honored nut.

Please feel free to suggest other candidates to be  the Fourth Nut (along with appropriate justification) in the comments below and vote in the poll.

Macadamiamaniacaly Yours,

-ACP

From The Nuts Page

Nuts, despite containing a lot of fat, are a fantastic heart-healthy snack.

I’ve started handing out my special Dr. P’s Heart Nuts to patients along with the following:

Congratulations!

You have received a packet of cardiovascular disease-busting Dr. P’s Heart Nuts!
One packet 15 grams of almonds, 15 grams of hazelnuts and 30 grams of walnuts.

There is very good scientific evidence that consuming 1/2 packet of these per day will reduce your risk of dying from heart attacks, strokes, and cancer.

The exact components are based on the landmark randomized trial of the Mediterranean diet, enhanced by either extra-virgin olive oil or nuts (PREDIMED, in which participants in the two Mediterranean-diet groups received either extra-virgin olive oil (approximately 1 liter per week) or 30g of mixed nuts per day

In other observational studies it has been found that for every 28 grams/ day increase in nut intake, risk was reduced by:

29% for coronary heart disease 7% for stroke
21% for cardiovascular disease 15% for cancer

22% for all-cause mortality
Surprisingly, death from diseases, other than heart disease or cancer, were also significantly reduced:
52% for respiratory disease
35% for neurodenerative disease
75% for infectious disease
74% for kidney disease

So when you are considering snacking, snack on nuts not processed food! Dr. Pearson

Posts About Nuts

Posts relevant to nuts and prevention of heart disease on my blog are

Nuts, Drupes, Legumes and Mortality

Kind Bars versus Nuts: Choose Just Plain Nuts

Although Nutella contains some hazelnuts it is full of sugar and other processed ingredients: why not eat hazelnuts instead?

Nutty Due Diligence

I spent a lot of time sourcing the nuts for my Dr. P’s Heart Nuts and discovered some disturbing things about almonds.

First, almost all almonds sold in the US have been gassed with proplyene oxide.

Second, roasting almonds can lead to an increase in toxic chemicals.

After finding out the first two facts about almonds I ended up getting raw, organic almonds from Spain. Unfortunately, about 1 in 10 of these were extremely bitter. It turns out these bitter almonds have significant amounts of cyanide.  So I wrote “Beware The Bitter Almond.”

I switched my raw, organic almond source to Nuts.com and with their almonds I very rarely encounter the bitter almond.

The other nuts in the mixture are raw and organic and obtained from Nuts.com.

 

Why Are The Dutch So Heart Healthy and Happy (And Tall)? Part I: Is It Their Diet?

The Skeptical Cardiologist and his  eternal fiancee’ recently spent 5 days in the Netherlands trying to understand why the Dutch are so happy and heart healthy.

We were driven by Geo (former statin fence-sitter) from Bruges to Haarlem, a city of 150,000, which lies about 15 km west of Amsterdam and about 5 km east of the North Sea.

 

Haarlem is one of the most delightful towns I’ve ever stayed in.

 

 

I was struck by  the beauty of its architecture, its canals and the happiness, height and friendliness of its inhabitants.

I was lucky enough to have a bike at my disposal. One day I set off randomly, and after 20 minutes of riding on delightfully demarcated bike lanes, I scrambled up a sand dune and looked out at the North Sea.

Just down the road was the  beach resort of Zandvoort, where one can enjoy sunbathing, surfing or a fine meal while gazing at a glorious sunset.

 

 

 

 

Like Amsterdam, which is a 15 minute train ride away, bikes and biking abound in Haarlem, but unlike Amsterdamers, the Haarlemers were universally engaging, polite and friendly. Everything and everyone seemed clean, well-organized, relaxed and pretty…and, well, …happy.

The Dutch High Happiness Rating

The World Happiness Report 2017, which ranks 155 countries by their happiness levels, was released in March of this year at the United Nations at an event celebrating The International Day of Happiness.

The report notes that:

Increasingly, happiness is considered to be the proper measure of social progress and the goal of public policy

Norway was at the top of the happiness list but

All of the other countries in the top ten also have high values in all six of the key variables used to explain happiness differences among countries and through time – income, healthy life expectancy, having someone to count on in times of trouble, generosity, freedom and trust, with the latter measured by the absence of corruption in business and government.

The top 4 were closely bunched with Finland in 5th place, followed by the Netherlands, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia and Sweden all tied for the 9th position.

Despite the immense wealth of Americans, the report notes:

The USA is a story of reduced happiness. In 2007 the USA ranked 3rd among the OECD countries; in 2016 it came 19th. The reasons are declining social support and increased corruption  and it is these same factors that explain why the Nordic countries do so much better.

Dutch children seem to be especially happy.

A UNICEF report from 2013 found that Dutch children were the happiest of the world’s 29 richest industrialized countries.  America ranked 26th, barely beating out Lithuania and Latvia.

Cardiovascular Disease in The Netherlands

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) deaths are due to blockages in the coronary arteries. Typically, this comes from the build up of atherosclerotic plaques in the arterial system and in most countries heart attacks from this process are the major cause of death.

The Netherlands has the third lowest rate of IHD deaths in developed countries, only slightly higher than France and less than half the rate of the USA.Screen Shot 2017-07-26 at 10.53.26 AM

In all developed countries over the last thirty years we have seen a marked drop in deaths due to IHD. In The Netherlands it has dropped 70% and the rate in 2013 was nearly as low as France’s rate.

In addition, the Netherlands has a very low rate of deaths from  hypertensive heart disease. This table from 2008 shows that they are second only to Japan and their mortality rate is a third of that in the US.

A recent update noted

The current Dutch age-standardised mortality from circulatory disease is 147 per 100,000, and only Spain and France have lower cardiovascular mortality rates (143 and 126 per 100,000, respectively). In all other European countries, including for instance Switzerland and Greece, cardiovascular mortality is higher [26].

What factors could be causing all this happiness and heart healthiness?

The Seemingly Horrid Dutch Diet

We have been programmed to believe that heart attack rates are related to saturated fat in our diets.

The fact that the French consume lots of saturated fat and rank so low in IHD deaths has been called the French Paradox as it seems to contradict the expected association.

One thing is clear-the Dutch are not following a whole foods, plant-based diet. They are among the world leaders in consumption of both fat and sugar as the graph below indicates.

While in The Netherlands I sought out raw herring,  a dish which Rick Steves and others indicate is a Dutch obsession.

Since there is evidence that fish consumption, especially fatty ones like herring and mackerel, is associated with a lower risk of coronary heart disease, perhaps this was protecting the Dutch.

I didn’t see much herring consumption in Haarlem (a native Haarlemer informs me that the Dutch raw herring consumption might be confined to older generations or tourists).

It turns out that the Dutch aren’t meeting their own nutritional guidelines for healthy food .

The recommendation to eat fish at least twice a week, of which at least once fatty fish such as salmon, herring or mackerel, is followed by a mere 14 percent of the population. Less than 25% of them meet the recommended daily amount of fish, fruit, and vegetable consumption.

Screen Shot 2017-07-26 at 11.58.57 AM
purple bar=women yellow bar=men orange bar= total

They do catch and export a lot of fish and shellfish and are in the top 10 of seafood exporting countries (99% of all those mussels consumed in Belgium come from The Netherlands).

And, to my great surprise, they eat lots of French, or as I have started calling them, Flanders fries.

 

I personally witnessed  massive amounts of cheese and butter consumption.

In fact, the Dutch average 15% of calories from saturated fat, which is far above the 10% recommended by the Dietary Guidelines for Americans.

A recent analysis of Dutch fat consumption found:

The mean baseline intake of total saturated fatty acids (SFAs)  in the population was 15.0% of energy. More than 97% of the population exceeded the upper intake limit of 10% of energy/d as recommended by the Health Council of the Netherlands.

The Dutch weren’t eating so-called healthy fats as “The main food sources of SFAs were cheese (17.4%), milk and milk products (16.6%), meat (17.5%), hard and solid fats (8.6%), and butter (7.3%).”

Surprisingly, the more saturated fat the Dutch consumed, the LOWER their risk of death from IHD:

After multivariable adjustment for lifestyle and dietary factors (model 4), a higher intake of energy from SFAs was significantly associated with a 17% lower IHD risk (HR per 5% of energy: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.74, 0.93)

The Dutch Paradox

Data shows that  the Dutch are eating lots of saturated fat from dairy and meat, but it appears to be lowering their risk for heart attacks

Yes, despite 40 years of high saturated fat consumption, the Dutch have seen a 70% drop in mortality from heart attacks. Their rate of dying from ischemic heart disease is lower than the US and only slightly higher than the French.

Thus, rather than talk about a French paradox, we should be talking about the Dutch paradox.

For the French paradox many theories, both fanciful and serious,  have been proposed

The one most laypeople remember (due to a 60 Minutes episode in 1991) is that the French are protected by their high red wine consumption. Although this theory proved a great boon to the red wine industry (sales rose 40% the year after Morley Safer made his presentation on 60 Minutes), it has never had any serious scientific credibility.  Current thinking is that all forms of alcohol in moderation are equally protective.

Others have proposed garlic or onion or faux gras consumption. My own theory for the French is that it is fine cheese and chocolate consumption that protects them.

In subsequent posts I’ll lay out the evidence for my startling new theory to explain the Dutch paradox.

 

 

Are Plant-Based “Milks” The Margarine of the 21st Century?

Full fat dairy doesn’t make you fat or give you heart disease. But nutritional guidelines still continue to recommend the substitution of non-fat or low-fat dairy for full fat, something that flies in the face of an overall movement to consume less processed foods.

The rise of plant-based milks resembles in many ways the rise of margarine as a substitute for butter. In both cases, industry and misguided scientists collaborated to produce an industrial product to substitute for a natural food, based on an unproven projection of health benefits. Subsequent studies have shown that this was an unmitigated health disaster, as the trans fats created in the production of margarine substantially increase the risk of heart disease.

Anti-Dairy Propaganda

Vegan/vegetarian sources of nutritional information like one green planet make unsubstantiated claims about the benefits of plant-based milks and the dangers of traditional milk:

the consumption of dairy products has been linked to everything from increased risk of ovarian and prostate cancers to ear infections and diabetes. Fortunately, plant-based milks provide a convenient and healthful alternative to cow’s milk. And if you are currently making the transition to a dairy-free diet, you will find that going dairy-free has never been easier. Soy, almond, hemp, coconut, and rice milks, among others, are taking over the dairy case—and claiming supermarket aisles all their own.

Growth of Plant-Based “Milks”

In response to consumers desire for healthier alternatives to dairy, non-dairy liquid milk-like substitutes  have been thriving. Almond milk, the current darling of plant-based milks (PMB) , sales have grown 250% in the last 5 years during which time,  the total milk market has shrunk by more  than $1 billion.

In western Europe, sales of almond, coconut, rice and oat milks doubled in the five years to 2014; in Australia they rose threefold, and in North America sales shot up ninefold, according to Euromonitor.

Big global beverage food and drinks companies have been entering the PBM market recognizing that American consumers have become aware of the unhealthiness of sugar-sweetened beverages.

Coca-Cola, for example, recently purchased Unilever’s AdeS soya brand. and believes that PBM consumption will grow faster than any other segment of the beverage industry over the next 5 to 10 years. Coca-Cola also recently purchased the China Green brand of plant-based protein drinks.

What’s in Soy Milk and Why It’s Not Real Food

The plant-based milks are a mixed bag of highly processed liquids. Let’s look at soy milk which has been widely promoted as a healthy substitute for dairy. Empowered Sustenance points out that there is reason to be concerned about all the added ingredients found in Silk, a popular soy milk.

Soymilk (Filtered Water, Whole Soybeans), Cane Sugar, Sea Salt, Carrageenan, Natural Flavor, Calcium Carbonate, Vitamin A Palmitate, Vitamin D2, Riboflavin (B2), Vitamin B12.

The long list of ingredients give you an idea of how much processing is needed to approximate the nutritional components of real dairy. Whether adding back synthetic Vitamin D2, synthetic Vitamin A and calcium carbonate simulates the nutritional benefits of the naturally occurring vitamins in a naturally fatty milieu, is anyone’s guess.

Variable Nutritional  Content of Plant-Based “Milks”

Bestfoodfacts.org asked 3 academic nutritional PhD’s how they would advise consumers on substituting nondairy “milk:”

Dr. Macrina: Plant-based milks are quite variable in what they contain while cow’s milk is pretty standard. We know where cow’s milk comes from. Plant-based milks are manufactured and can have a variety of additives. I urge consumers to read the label to determine what’s best for them.

Dr. Savaiano: Yes, consumers should read the label very carefully. Plant-based drinks certainly can be a healthy choice depending on how they’re formulated.

Dr. Weaver: The plant-based beverages all cost a good deal more than cow’s milk. So, one needs to determine how much they want to pay for the nutrients and determine which nutrients you need to get from other foods. A main nutrient expected from milk is calcium. Only soy milk has been tested for calcium bioavailability (by my lab) which was determined to be as good as from cow’s milk. But none of the other plant beverages have been tested and they should be.

Is There Scientific Evidence To Support Replacing Milk and Dairy Products with Plant-based Drinks?

A recent review paper from Danish researchers attempted to answer the question:

Milk and dairy products: good or bad for human health? An assessment of the totality of scientific evidence. 

They concluded:

The most recent evidence suggested that intake of milk and dairy products was associated with reduced risk of childhood obesity. In adults, intake of dairy products was shown to improve body composition and facilitate weight loss during energy restriction. In addition, intake of milk and dairy products was associated with a neutral or reduced risk of type 2 diabetes and a reduced risk of cardiovascular disease, particularly stroke. Furthermore, the evidence suggested a beneficial effect of milk and dairy intake on bone mineral density but no association with risk of bone fracture. Among cancers, milk and dairy intake was inversely associated with colorectal cancer, bladder cancer, gastric cancer, and breast cancer, and not associated with risk of pancreatic cancer, ovarian cancer, or lung cancer, while the evidence for prostate cancer risk was inconsistent. Finally, consumption of milk and dairy products was not associated with all-cause mortality.

They went on to examine the question: Is there scientific evidence to substantiate that replacing milk and dairy products with plant-based drinks will improve health?

They noted the marked variation in nutritional content of the plant-based milks:

the nutrient density of plant-based milk substitutes varies considerably between and within types, and their nutritional properties depend on the raw material used, the processing, the fortification with vitamins and minerals, and the addition of other ingredients such as sugar and oil. Soy drink is the only plant-based milk substitute that approximates the protein content of cow’s milk, whereas the protein contents of the drinks based on oat, rice, and almonds are extremely low,

and their similarity to sugar-sweetened beverages:

Despite the fact that most of the plant-based drinks are low in saturated fat and cholesterol, some of these products have higher energy contents than whole milk due to a high content of oil and added sugar.

Some plant-based drinks have a sugar content equal to that of sugar-sweetened beverages, which have been linked to obesity, reduced insulin sensitivity , increased liver, muscle, and visceral fat content as well as increased blood pressure, and increased concentrations of triglyceride and cholesterol in the blood

PBM and real milk also differ with respect to important electrolytes and elements:

Analyses of several commercially available plant-based drinks carried out at the Technical University of Denmark showed a generally higher energy content and lower contents of iodine, potassium, phosphorus, and selenium in the plant-based drinks compared to semi-skimmed milk

and some PBM contain potentially dangerous components:

Also, rice drinks are known to have a high content of inorganic arsenic, and soy drinks are known to contain isoflavones with oestrogen-like effects. Consequently, The Danish Veterinary and Food Administration concluded that the plant-based drinks cannot be recommended as full worthy alternatives to cow’s milk which is consistent with the conclusions drawn by the Swedish National Food Agency

Finally, the authors emphasize the importance of the health effects of whole foods rather than individual nutrients. Plant-based milks are not whole or real foods:

The importance of studying whole foods instead of single nutrients is becoming clear as potential nutrient–nutrient interactions may affect the metabolic response to the whole food compared to its isolated nutrients. As the plant-based drinks have undergone processing and fortification, any health effects of natural soy, rice, oats, and almonds cannot be directly transferred to the drinks, but need to be studied directly.

The Skeptical Cardiologist Recommendation

Consumers should be very cautious in their consumption of plant-based milks. Eerily reminiscent of the push to switch from butter to margarine in the past, these drinks cannot be considered as healthier than dairy products.

They are creations of industry, promoted and produced by large companies like Coca-Cola and Unilever, whose goal is profit, not consumer’s health.

The PBMs are not true whole or real foods and their nutritional content varies wildly. Some resemble sugar-sweetened beverages like Coca-Cola.

If one of the synthetic ingredients added to these beverages turns out to have the markedly negative health effect that trans fats had, the analogy to margarine will be complete.

My  Eternal Fiancee’ has true lactose intolerance and has baristas substitute almond or soy milk when ordering a latte’.  I understand that but I’ve been trying to convince her (with increasing success lately!)  to drink my Chemex pour-over coffee and adulterate it with nothing, butter, cream or coconut oil.

Skeptically Yours,

-ACP

Featured image courtesy of One Green Planet.

For your enjoyment I present a mind-bogglingly complicated table listing the various nutrients in a mind-bogglingly long list of different plant-based milks (including hemp milk!):

 

 

 

Nonskeptical Musical Thoughts On Dick Dale and the Dead While Running For Longevity

Since determining that running would lower my cardiovascular risk and that it was actually good for my wonky knees (running is associated with a lower risk of ostearthritis or hip replacement, see here), I’ve been trying to do it regularly.

It has become therapeutic in many ways, aiding sleep and reducing stress levels. And, unlike my bike riding adventures, I have yet to fall and injure myself running and I don’t get dirty looks for not wearing a helmet.

I’ve even contemplated running 5 kilometers,  although not as part of any formal exhibition: just a personal , private goal. To this end I have for the first time recently run 4 kilometers.

Listening to music during these longer runs greatly helps the time pass and sometimes I am able to find songs which fit my running cadence, albeit not through any systematic analysis but through mere serendipity. I let my entire musical collection (nicely streamed by Apple music) be my running playlist and this ranges from the Talking Heads to Thelonius Monk to Bach.

This morning’s run (the second time I reached 4K) I was aided by two songs: one by the king of surf guitar, the other by the kings of psychedelic jam rock.

Dick Dale and Miserlou

Although, Dick Dale was huge in the early sixties, he did not register on my musical radar until  I watched Pulp Fiction and in its dazzling opening scene and  was jolted by Dale’s staccato machine gun guitar riffs alternating with his plaintive trumpet solo on  “Miserlou“.

I immediately strapped on my Strat and began trying to emulate his unique playing style.

Here’s Dick and the Del-Tones performing their version for the movie “A Swinging’ Affair”

This version contains none of the rhythmic power and electrifying guitar attack of the single and the band appears to be on tranquilizers. To make matters worse, Dick  doesn’t play that magical melodic moaning trumpet solo which contrasts so brilliantly with the pile-driving reverb-drenched guitar riffs on the original version.

You can see some of the power of the left-handed Dale in this live performance of Miserlou from 1995 but alas, no trumpet solo.

Dick Dale, remarkably, is still touring and playing well at age 80.

As fortune would have it the beats per
minute of this song is 173 which fits my preferred running speed stride cadence perfectly.

The Other One (Not Cryptical Envelopment)

The next song to aid me on my run was a live performance from the Grateful Dead’s 1972 European Tour  which is 36 minutes long.

I was slow to revere the Dead but when I first listened to their live album Europe ’72 I was hooked. Instead of studying in college, I spent way too many hours playing Sugar Magnolia (and Blue Sky, et al..)  thereafter.

The Other One highlights their free and wild improvisational style. While running I could focus on what Keith Godchaux was doing on the piano and that takes me to a psychic place in which I feel no pain.

Please excuse my hubris but I am convinced that I could have done a good job as the Dead keyboardist.  It’s probably a good thing I never got that gig, however, as it carries a very high mortality rate (not to mention that I’m a much better cardiologist than keyboardist.)

As Billboard pointed out in its obituary on the last keyboardist, Vince Welnick (who committed suicide by slitting his throat at age 55 in 2006):

Welnick was the last in a long line of Grateful Dead keyboardists, several of whom died prematurely, leading some of the group’s fans to conclude that the position came with a curse.

Welnick had replaced Brent Mydland, who died of a drug overdose in 1990. Mydland succeeded Keith Godchaux, who died in a car crash shortly after leaving the band. And Godchaux had replaced the band’s original keyboard player, Ron “Pigpen” McKernan, who died at 27 in 1973.

Last week a very good Grateful Dead documentary (Long Strange Trip) was released on Netflix. I’ve been somewhat mesmerized by what I’ve watched so far.  For example, at one point, Phil Lesh reveals that Jerry Garcia asked him to join the band as their bassist even though he had never played the instrument. (If only he had asked me!)

Strangetrippingly Yours

-ACP

N.B. Miserlou is a very old folk song with a scale that sounds exotic to Western ears: the double harmonic scale

per Wikipedia

The song’s oriental melody has been so popular for so long that many people, from Morocco to Iraq, claim it to be a folk song from their own country. In fact, in the realm of Middle Eastern music, the song is a very simplistic one, since it is little more than going up and down the Hijaz Kar or double harmonic scale (E-F-G#-A-B-C-D#). It still remains a well known Greek, Klezmer, and Arab folk song.